Keeping savings in a drawer is harmful: inflation will erode their value. Then it is necessary to invest them. How? By distributing your money into a portfolio of different financial instruments!
Summary:
What is a financial portfolio?
The Classic 60/40 portfolio
The All Seasons portfolio
Conclusions and suggestions
What is a financial portfolio?
A financial portfolio is a collection of financial investments like stocks, bonds, cash, shares of funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or other alternative investments (for example commodities, like physical silver or gold, and real estate).
There are different types of portfolios and their composition depends on your tolerance for risk. Remember: all investments carry some level of risk.
The beginning of Portfolio Theory starts in the 1930s and the Modern Portfolio Theory in the 1950s (thanks to Harry Markowitz).
Because nothing beats an example, let's see some common and historical types of financial portfolios.
The Classic 60/40 portfolio
The classic 60/40 financial portfolio was designed by John Clifton Bogle.
The composition of the 60/40 portfolio is based on an extremely simple structure: the division between Stocks (60%) and Bonds (40%).
It is a truly essential investment strategy: it exclusively includes the two main asset classes (stocks and bonds).
The principle from which this division arises lies in the fact that over the years the bonds have provided adequate protection in periods of a sharp decline in the stock markets.
In fact, during stock market crashes, capital tends to move towards the bond sector, which, consequently, rises in price, cushioning the losses of the entire portfolio (but this is not always true; in the current period (2022) both stocks and bonds both are losing value).
As we are seeing these days, its simplicity is perhaps excessive, even trying to diversify bonds and stocks by geographical area (USA, Europe, China, Emerging Countries) and financial sector (industrial, banking, technological, etc.).
The All Seasons portfolio
The All Seasons portfolio was created by Ray Dalio, founder of the largest hedge fund in the world (Bridgewater Associates).
The All Seasons portfolio is based on the concept of the “business cycle”.
In an economic cycle there are usually four possible scenarios (like the four seasons) that alternate according to global geopolitical events:
In each of the four scenarios, there are investment assets that perform well and other assets or assets that, on the other hand, are destined to suffer.
The All Seasons portfolio is made up of a mix of assets capable of performing well overall in all four situations.
So, the ideal composition of an All Seasons portfolio is based on:
- 40% US Long-Term Bonds.
- 15% US Medium-Term Bonds.
- 30% US Stocks.
- 7.5% Commodities.
- 7.5% Gold.
Author's elaboration – Source: Google Sheets.
Let's see how it works:
In phases of economic growth, stocks rise.
In periods of economic downturn, stocks go down, but bonds tend to do well.
During times of rising prices (inflation) bonds suffer, but commodities and gold tend to do well.
During periods of falling prices (deflation), commodities and gold suffer, but bonds grow.
The percentages have been designed to optimize the interaction between the various assets.
This type of allocation made it possible to contain the effect of major stock market crashes.
In this graphic, you can see the performance of the classic 60/40 portfolio and All Season portfolio compared with an ETF of the S&P 500 index:
Source: Of Dollars and Data - screenshot by Author.
Here you can see the drawdown:
Source: Of Dollars and Data - screenshot by Author.
Conclusions and suggestions
Takeaways:
- Keeping your money in a box is useless and harmful (inflation will reduce its value over time). It is best to try to invest it in a logical and historically profitable way.
Suggestions:
- To try to invest your money, you can consider some classic, but effective, financial portfolios like the 60/40 one or the All Seasons.
- Use this document as the starting point for your research of a financial portfolio that fits well your tolerance for risk and your financial targets.
A sincere wish of good work to all!
Written by F. GRAMOLA (*).
(*) Member of S.I.A.T., the Italian Society of Technical Analysis (member society of I.F.T.A. – International Federation of Technical Analysts).
Warning
We merely cite our personal opinions for educational purposes only.
All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Investing and trading are risky. Don't invest or trade money that you cannot afford to lose
Post a Comment